نمذجة قياسية لمحددات الصادرات خارج قطاع المحروقات في الجزائر

The issue of export diversification constitutes a major challenge for oil-dependent nations in general, and Algeria in particular. Consequently, this study investigates the determinants of non-hydrocarbon exports in Algeria over the period 1980-2023. To achieve this objective, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was employed, after the bounds testing procedure confirmed the existence of a cointegrating relationship among the variables under study. The long-run estimation results indicate that a 1% increase in non-hydrocarbon GDP leads to a 3.68% increase in non-hydrocarbon exports, whereas a 1% increase in the real effective exchange rate results in a 1.85% decrease in these exports. Trade openness exhibits a strong positive effect, as a 1% increase in openness raises non-hydrocarbon exports by 2.77%. Furthermore, inflation exhibits a positive effect with an elasticity of 0.40%. These findings underscore the importance of adopting policies that aim to strengthen the productive base, enhance competitiveness, and deepen trade openness to support the process of export diversification in Algeria.